Market Pulse: It is important to know what you are buying

INCLINE VILLAGE, Nev. — I was recently interviewed for the June issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazine. The topic was Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). A lot of their questions centered on the new breed of ETFs, such as currency and commodity ETFs, that allow investors to enter markets that were previously only available to professional traders. While these products give investors more flexibility, I find many investors don't fully understand what they are buying. They should.

Let's suppose an investor has watched the price of natural gas plummet these last few years. In a move to buy low, he or she looks to buy a gas ETF. There are a lot of choices. The most popular is U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG). Other choices include the Trust Natural Gas (FCG), and iPath Dow Jones-UBS Natural Gas (GAZ). Which one to buy?

It is important to understand what the security tracks. Does it track the futures market or does it track equity prices within the sector? Its performance can greatly vary depending on its holdings. The U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG) tracks the futures market while First Trust Natural Gas (FCG) tracks corporate stocks. UNG is down 30 percent this year while FCG is down 9 percent.

Even when two securities track the futures market, their performance can be substantially different. Again, UNG is down 30 percent this year. iPath Dow Jones-UBS Natural Gas (GAZ), which also tracks natural gas futures, is up 2 percent this year. That's a big difference!

One can't just rely on performance though. Little known is that the iPath Dow Jones-UBS Natural Gas (GAZ) has stopped issuing new shares. As a result, this product trades at a huge premium. In fact, it is about double its indicative value. If Barclays, the issuer of GAZ, decides to open the fund again then its shares will plunge.

Another factor to consider is GAZ is an Exchange-Traded Note (ETN) rather than an ETF. As explained in a previous article, ETNs are riskier because they are backed by the credit of the issuing bank or broker. They are only as good as their backer.

The new breed of exotic ETFs allows the everyday investor to enter markets that were previously only available to sophisticated investors. They are complex, however. Before buying these products it is important to fully understand what they are and what they track.

— David Vomund is an Incline Village-based fee-only money manager. Information is found atwww.ETFportfolios.net or by calling 775-832-8555. Clients hold the positions mentioned in this article. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult your financial adviser before purchasing any security.

By David Vomund
Special to the Bonanza

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Mortgage Applications Increasing as Mortgage Rates Fall Again

With the Euro-zone back in the news, it was inevitable that mortgage rates would fall again. Investors have become quite uncertain about austerity measures in Europe, especially with Greece, where opposition continues to grow. Here in the U.S., the Mortgage Banker's Association reported that mortgage applications increased 1.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 4th.

Of these applications, the Refinance Index was up 1.3% and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3.4%, with the majority applying for conforming (conventional) mortgages. FreeRateUpdate.com's survey of wholesale and direct lenders shows that conforming 30 year fixed mortgage rates dropped .125% and are now at 3.625%. Current 15 year fixed mortgage rates are at 3.000% and 5/1 adjustable mortgage rates are at 2.375%, all available with 0.7 to 1% origination fee to borrowers with good credit.

As mortgage rates have continued at record lows, 95% of borrowers who refinance have chosen fixed rate mortgages, according to Freddie Mac. Of these, 31% have replaced their 30 year mortgage with a 20 year term or less and 66% have chosen amortgage refinance with the same term. The expanded Harp is well underway and is drawing the attention of many underwater borrowers who want to refinance to better mortgage terms.

Many are finding that an online inquiry is the quickest way to learn if they are eligible for Harp 2.0 or possibly another program. Some who were originally turned down have actually been approved by another lender after inquiring online. Potential home buyers may be finding that housing prices are stabilizing which is due to declining inventory and improved sales, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Last week, Fannie Mae released the National Housing Survey for April showing that consumers are more optimistic regarding the direction of home prices which is good news for home sellers. On the other hand, those who wish to purchase a home need to start seriously thinking about making a decision while home prices and mortgage rates are still low.

On Friday, President Obama proposed making mortgage refinancing available to everyone and has urged citizens to push their representatives to pass this legislation. In a plea to Congress, Obama wants to include all lenders in Harp incentives, offer streamlined refinancing to all non-GSE and non-FHA borrowers and to cut closing costs for underwater borrowers who refinance to lower monthly payments or apply the savings to rebuild equity in their homes. This could possibly be the Harp 3.0 that everyone has been waiting for since January if it gets passed by Congress.

Business for government insured FHA mortgages has decreased slightly since the increase in the upfront and annual mortgage insurance premiums in April. Current FHA 30 year fixed mortgage rates are at 3.375%, FHA 15 year fixed mortgage rates are at 2.875% and FHA 5/1 adjustable mortgage rates are at 2.875%. With the current upfront MIP at 1.75% for all FHA mortgages, the FHA closing costs (APR) which include other FHA fees are higher than conforming mortgages, but these are usually added to the mortgage amount. Existing FHA borrowers were put on hold for FHA refinances until June when the FHA streamline refinance with no cash out is re-released with lower upfront and annual mortgage insurance premiums. This is just another incentive to bring in existing FHA borrowers to refinance to lower FHA mortgage rates.

Jumbo mortgages continue to be a tighter market as lenders reduce their exposure to high risk loans. Nevertheless, current jumbo mortgage rates remain at all time lows for borrowers who are qualified. Current jumbo 30 year fixed mortgage rates dropped .125% last week and are at 4.125%. Jumbo 15 year fixed mortgage rates are at 3.375% and jumbo 5/1 adjustable mortgage rates are at 2.500%. Borrowers who have excellent credit and can meet lender guidelines can obtain these lowest jumbo mortgage rates with 0.7 to 1% origination fee. Jumbo mortgages, which are not government insured or sold to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, are necessary for financing above the conforming and FHA loan limits.

Although there were no significant rallies over the week, MBS prices did have an influence as can be seen with the decrease in 30 year fixed mortgage rates. Mortgage rates move in the opposite direction of MBS prices. Data released shows that in April Consumer Sentiment increased, Core PPI increased, PPI Inflation decreased and Import Prices dropped in March. According to the Labor Department, Jobless Claims were down 1,000 from the previous week which is considered a sign of improvement. Fed Chief Bernanke stated last week that although banks are stronger, they continue to be strict which is making mortgage lending sluggish. Europe is again having a strong influence on markets which will help keep mortgage rates at record lows.

FreeRateUpdate.com surveys more than two dozen wholesale and direct lenders’ rate sheets to determine the most accurate mortgage rates available to well qualified consumers at a standard 0.7 to 1% point origination fee.


Written by Ed Ferrara
May 16, 2012, Published by Realty Times

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Second Consecutive Week Of Record-Low Fixed Mortgage Rates

In Freddie Mac's results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the average fixed mortgage rates hit a new all-time record low for the second consecutive week as they followed bond yields lower. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has averaged below 4 percent all but one week since December 8, 2011, helping to keep homebuyer affordability high.

30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.83 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending May 10, 2012, down from last week when it averaged 3.84 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.63 percent.

15-year FRM this week averaged 3.05 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.07 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.82 percent.

5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.81 percent this week, with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.85 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.41 percent.

1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.73 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.70 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 3.11 percent.

According to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac:

"Following April's weaker than expected employment report, and the French and Greek election results raising concerns over the stability of the Euro currency zone, long-term Treasury bond yields declined allowing fixed mortgage rates to ease to new all-time record lows this week. The economy added just 115,000 jobs, below the market consensus forecast and less than in March. And although the unemployment rate declined, it reflected fewer people actively seeking jobs."


May 11, 2012, Published by Realty Times

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Avoid First-Time Buyer Mistakes

You've finally decided that now is the time for you to jump into the housing market! Perhaps you've done the math and want to take advantage of historically low interest rates and high levels of affordability. Maybe you have a new family that is quickly outgrowing your little rental. No matter the reason, buying real estate is a big responsibility.

There are several rookie mistakes that many first-time home buyers can make. Keep reading for how to avoid them!

First, first-timers underestimate the importance of finding the right real estate agent. Not all agents are equal. Not only do their experience levels and commission rates vary widely, but every agent has their own unique personality. You want to be sure you find an agent that you feel comfortable with and that you respect.

In order to find the best fit agent for your needs, set up several interviews with local agents. Ask them about their business. Do they have a cell number where you can reach them? Do they web conference on days you can't meet? How often do they send prospective homes to buyers? Be sure to ask for testimonials and references. Finally, just get a feel for how your two personalities will mesh. Does the agent seem to have your best interest at heart? Are they giving you the respect you deserve or treating you like a dunce?

Next, a common mistake for first-time agents is to consider what type of home you want. If you know ahead of time what you are looking for, the price range, as well as what you're willing to compromise on, you'll be much more likely to make a decision quickly about buying a specific home.

This is important for two reasons. You don't want to make an impulsive decision, but you also don't want to wait so long that someone else swoops in and buys the house before you can make an offer!

The third mistake is not considering that a home is an investment -- one where you don't want to lose your shirt down the line. Is this home priced right? Compare it to other similar homes. Is this home in a desirable location or is it next to a busy street, etc? Will is require a lot of work? When you go to resell this home, you want to make a profit or break even.

You'll need to consider that you'll probably pay an agent a commission and will be paying closing costs at selling time. This is extra money on top of what you need to make on the sale of the home to break even.

Most experts say you need to stay in a home for at least 3 to 5 years in order to break even. This time frame could be even longer if home values continue to fall. Remember, homeownership is a long-term investment

Next, ask your lender lots of questions and be proactive about finding the best deal. Different lenders will offer you different rates. Research your options. Would you be better served with a 15-year or 30-year note?

Ask lots of questions about the difference between adjustable and fixed rate mortgages. Learn about points. Find out how much interest you'll pay over the life of the loan. The lender is there to serve you, so don't be shy about getting the information you need.

Finally, don't be greedy or low-ball sellers. This may be a buyers market, but if you offer too little or ask too much in concessions you may turn the seller off. They don't have to sell their home to you!

Avoid these common first-time buyer mistakes and you're sure to have a fun and rewarding buying experience!


Written by Carla Hill
May 4, 2012, Published by Realty Times

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Fixed Mortgage Rates Average New All-Time Record Lows

In Freddie Mac's results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey®, the average fixed mortgage rates found new all-time record lows, continuing to help keep homebuyer affordability high. The 30-year fixed averaged 3.84 percent, down from its previous all-time record low of 3.87 percent last registered on February 9, 2012. The 15-year fixed averaged 3.07 percent, also dropping below its previous all-time record low of 3.11 percent set April 12 of this year. The 1-year ARM also averaged a new all-time record low in the PMMS at 2.70 percent.

30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.84 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending May 3, 2012, down from last week when it averaged 3.88 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.71 percent.

15-year FRM this week averaged 3.07 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.12 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.89 percent.

5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.85 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, unchanged from last week when it averaged 2.85 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.47 percent.

1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.70 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.74 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 3.14 percent.

According to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac:

"Signs of slowing economic growth and inflation remaining subdued allowed yields on Treasury bonds to ease somewhat and brought most mortgage rates to new all-time record lows this week. Real Gross Domestic Product rose at an annualized rate of 2.2 percent in the first quarter of this year, down from the previous quarter of 3.0 percent and below the market consensus forecast of 2.5 percent. In addition, the 12-month growth in the core price index of personal consumption expenditures was 2.0 percent in March which matches the Federal Reserve's implied inflation target."


May 4, 2012, Published by Realty Times

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Study Reveals Do-It-YourSelf Home Improvements Increase Home's Value

When it comes to home values, a little elbow grease can go a long way, according to a recent nationwide study by HomeGain.

The study surveyed 500 real estate agents throughout the nation to learn the top 10 low-cost, do-it-yourself improvements that help increase the likelihood a home would sell.

Ranking in the top five are: clean & de-clutter, lighten & brighten, repair electrical & plumbing, landscaping, and home staging. But how much benefit can you really expect to get from each of these home improvement categories?

According to the study, the top home improvement (since 2003) continues to be to clean and de-clutter your home. It may cost you about $400 to make the most of this home improvement but sellers who make the financial commitment can benefit by seeing a "returning value of just over $2,000 to the home's sale price". That's a 403 percent return on investment (ROI).

Coming in at the number two spot is lightening and brightening your home. This makes perfect sense. If a home is dark and difficult to view, many buyers won't spend even minutes in it. Buyers want to be able to explore the home, seeing every detail. Also, homes that are dark often convey a dreary tone and may give buyers the suspicion that there may be hidden damages in the home.

Interestingly, home staging fell to the number five spot. In the 2011, study it ranked third. However, for this year, do-it-yourself tasks such as repairing electrical and plumbing issues, and maintaining landscape, ranked higher, respectively.

"In a buyer's market, sellers need to dress their homes for success before putting them on the market," said Louis Cammarosano, General Manager at HomeGain.

It could be a sign of the times, that do-it-yourself home improvement projects are creating greater ROI. With many homes falling into foreclosure or being put on the market as a short sale, there is lots of inventory that is lacking a little tender loving care.

Sellers who are listing their home on the market should take a close look at the competition and then, as I've written in previous columns, see their home through the eyes of a potential buyer. In other words, check out its flaws and fix those issues.

Remember, buyers don't have a history with your home. They're not necessarily attached and willing to overlook the downside of your property.

Create a do-it-yourself task list and target those areas that need some work. Then bring in the experts to do the maintenance and repairs that need professional care. Investing a little more into increasing the potential sale of your home can mean not only more money but also a faster sale.

Rounding out the top 10 on the HomeGain.com National Home Improvements study are shampoo or replace carpets, repair floors, paint interior walls, update kitchen & bathroom, and paint the exterior of the home. For more details on the study and to see a complete analysis of the cost versus the ROI, visit HomeGain.com.


Written by Phoebe Chongchua
April 27, 2012

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Fixed Mortgage Rates Hold Near Record Lows

In Freddie Mac's results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey®, average fixed mortgage rates were down slightly and hovering just above their record lows as markets waited for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.88 percent and has been below 4 percent all but one week in 2012. The 15-year fixed, a popular refinancing choice, averaged 3.12 percent.

30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.88 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending April 26, 2012, down from last week when it averaged 3.90 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.78 percent.

15-year FRM this week averaged 3.12 percent with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.13 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.97 percent.

5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.85 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.78 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.51 percent.

1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.74 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.81 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 3.15 percent.

According to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac:

"Fixed mortgage rates held near record lows this week as the markets waited for the Federal Reserve's (Fed) April 25th monetary policy announcement following two days of deliberations. The Fed stated that it expects economic growth to remain moderate and then pick up gradually. In addition, it noted that labor market conditions have improved in recent months and it anticipates the unemployment rate will decline gradually.

"The housing market has also shown some improvement as well. The Federal Housing Finance Agency's purchase-only house price index rose at a monthly rate of 0.3 percent in February. Moreover, 12 out of 20 metropolitan areas experienced increases over the month, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller® 20-city indexes, led by a 2.1 percent gain in Phoenix. New home sales in March were stronger than the consensus market forecast and February's sales were revised upwards to the strongest pace in almost two years. However, the Fed's statement warned that despite some signs of improvement, the housing sector still remains depressed."


April 27, 2012, Published by Realty Times

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