Tahoe's Ski Industry Mindful of Climate Change

Picture this: Strong gusts of wind are blowing in another storm, and snow is dumping on the highest peaks in Tahoe.

But drop down a couple thousand feet or so - into the valleys and canyons of the Sierra Nevada, the mountain towns and ski resort villages, to the shores of Lake Tahoe - and it's raining.

Instead of the blanket of snow typically seen today, deserted chairlifts at the bases of ski resorts swing in the wind over bare rocks and patches of snow. A new state-of-the-art tram takes skiers up to the mountain's upper elevations above the snowline.

The once-legendary winters of the Sierra Nevada have shortened and drop less snow.

This portrait, according to climate change projections cast by local, state and national scientists, may no longer be fiction by the end of the century - or even in 50 years.

And ski resorts are well aware of what climate change scientists are saying."It's integral that we take on climate change," said Savannah Cowley, spokeswoman for Squaw Valley. "It's something that, since we are directly impacted by (global warming), everyone (in the ski industry) is taking responsibility. And it's a great thing."


Climate projections

This is what the scientists are predicting: The snowline will rise, spring runoff will melt sooner, and more precipitation will fall as rain instead of snow, especially at lower elevations.

"There's a consensus that we will lose snowpack," said Dan Cayan of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego. "The degree of loss could range by quite a broad amount, depending on how much warming occurs. And I think that's pretty well agreed upon - that higher amounts of warming will result in greater losses" of snow.

By the end of the century, if temperatures rise 3 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit, the Sierra Nevada ski season will shrink by a month, according to the 2006 California Climate Change Center summary report's base projection.

If temperatures rise even higher, the state report says that in 100 years, the Sierra Nevada may see many years without enough snow to ski at all.

"If the world economy continues on this sort of high-carbon diet, it's not good," Cayan said. "And these changes will happen faster and to a larger degree than if things are moderated."

Green's all the buzz

As executive director of the California Ski Industry Association, it is Bob Roberts' job to represent ski-resort interests at the state Capitol.

That includes lobbying in favor of green initiatives that will curb the effects of climate change.

"Because, clearly, this is an issue for this industry," Roberts said. "We sit on the snowpack. We see what happens."

The ski industry must be engaged at the political level to see change, Roberts said. That's why he has been working closely with elected officials and government agencies to support a number of environmental legislative bills, including legislation to lower vehicle emissions and the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, which seeks to reverse statewide emissions back to levels seen 30 years prior.

"There's no question that we're going to have to become pro-active," Roberts said. "We're a small industry, but we have a voice."

And while Roberts pushes green legislation at the capital, green initiatives remain all the buzz at ski resorts.

"It's the most important thing. I think we have a responsibility to manage the environment that we manage," said Art Chapman, president of JMA Ventures, which owns Homewood and Alpine Meadows ski resorts. "The people who visit these ski areas are people who love the outdoors. They certainly have an environmental bent. And I think that what we're doing is entirely consistent with what we should be doing."

The ski industry is not the biggest culprit of greenhouse gas emissions. But many eyes are watching the resorts' every move. Roberts said the ski industry's voice in the climate change arena is like "the mouse that roared."

"The impact is small because we are a very small industry," he said. "We are small. But the fact of the matter is, we have a high public profile. And so, from an educational point of view, it's really important."

Cowley said such environmental initiatives as recycling trail maps or limiting disposable tableware seek to involve ski-area guests in the solution.

"People love it," she said. "And people love the idea that before they leave, they're doing something. Even if it's the smallest thing to reduce their footprint."

Efforts to go green get traction beyond Tahoe, Mammoth or Big Bear, Roberts said.

"This message is getting out," Roberts said. "We're singing soprano way back in the chorus of this choir. But we're singing."

Keep an eye for warming signs

At his post perched on the crest of the Sierra, Central Sierra Snowlab Director Randall Osterhuber is in a unique position to document the changes in the mountain range's climate.

Local data shows constant fluctuation in the amount of annual precipitation on the Sierra Nevada, according to more than 50 years' worth of numbers recorded at the snowlab on Donner Summit.

But the form the moisture takes while falling to the ground is changing.

Rain gradually is replacing snow, Osterhuber said. Simultaneously, the average snowline is going up, and the region's maximum snow depth is decreasing slightly."

So those things fit together, of course," Osterhuber said. "That's what one would expect if throughout the winter, we're seeing a higher percentage of rain."

These observations are based on more than 60 years' worth of data taken since the Donner Summit snowlab was built in 1946, Osterhuber said.

"Looking at this last winter doesn't necessarily subscribe to the theory that we're getting warmer," Osterhuber said. "But you can't just take one of these snapshot views. You have to look at the bigger picture, the bigger trends."

The state of California predicts a 1,500-foot rise in the Sierra snowline over the next 90 years, according to a publication issued by the Sierra Nevada Alliance. The alliance projects that in 100 years, the spring snowpack will be 30 percent to 70 percent of what it is today.

The United Nations says snowpack across the globe is diminishing, but Cayan said that the Sierra Nevada is a warmer mountain range than others because of its proximity to the Pacific coastline.

"The West Coast, the mountains that are closest to the coast, are more vulnerable to climate warming effects," Cayan said. "Just because we have warmer snows."

Ski-resort officials say they've already noticed a delayed start, pushing the winter season further into the spring. The absence of early season storms in the fall forces ski areas to become reliant on snowmaking to catch the holiday business between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

"Number one, we believe (climate change predictions) are real," Chapman said. "Clearly, the winters are coming later. So we're having less early snow, which is a challenge for ski areas."

Janet Tuttle, who owns Donner Ski Ranch with her husband, Marshall, said the late start hurts business because out-of-town clients are not as enthusiastic about winter sports once the seasons change on the other side of the hill.

"When we have more snow further into the season, people aren't that interested in coming up," Tuttle said. "People are thinking (in the spring), 'We're going to go to the beach. We're going to go golfing' ... They're not thinking about skiing anymore."

According to numbers recorded by the UC Davis Tahoe Environmental Research Center since 1911, the nightly minimum temperature at Tahoe City has increased by more than 4 degrees, and the number of days experiencing average air temperatures below freezing is dropping.

"It's not getting hotter at the hot end, it's just getting warmer at the cold end," said Heather Segale, education and outreach coordinator at the research center.

In 1911, 52 percent of the total precipitation came down as snow annually. Today, only 34 percent of the total precipitation is falling frozen, according to the UC Davis data.

"The research - there's so much of it - we know what's happening. The researchers know what's going on," Segale said. "And so now it's just a matter of what to do with the land managers, the government and the different agencies and groups. What's the best strategy to make a true difference?"

So what's a ski resort to do?

Despite predictions that point toward a bleak future for the ski industry, resort officials remain cautiously optimistic. And for some, the answer lies in offering more than just ski tickets.

Tuttle said that operating at an elevation of 7,200 feet buffers Donner Ski Ranch from the warmest forecast. And the family-owned ski area offers trail activities in the summer - diversifying their product from winter-only to year-round."

Because we do have a higher base, we're fortunate in that respect," Tuttle said. "And you know, if we don't get snow ever again - at least I own 500 acres of the most beautiful land on Earth. And I will go hiking every day."

Homewood may sit at a low elevation of 6,200 feet, making the West Shore ski resort more vulnerable to warming than its higher-elevation neighbors. But the resort's lakefront location works in its favor, Chapman said.

JMA Ventures is proposing to develop the lakefront ski area into a year-round destination resort. Homewood won't just be a place to take your family skiing, it will be a complete mountain vacation - with or without snow.

To successfully achieve the shift from a ski resort to a destination, however, Chapman said it is critical to raise the bar environmentally.

"Because that's why people come," he said. "Environmentally, it's such a beautiful area."